Commentary
* Kamal Thapa’s roadmap is no longer relevant
* Delhi wants new roadmap
* If Paudel can’t present a convincing roadmap, Oli’s visit could be delayed
Prime Minister KP Oli is preparing to embark on an official visit to India in a few weeks, it is still not clear when he will do so. But one of his closest aides Finance Minister Bishnu Paudel is heading to New Delhi on Sunday to ‘prepare for Oli’s visit’. 
Spokesperson for India’s Ministry of External Affairs Vikas Swarup has said Oli’s visit is being considered, but concrete plans have not materialised yet. He told a regular press conference in Delhi that Nepal’s minister Paudel will meet his Indian counterpart as well as foreign minister Sushma Swaraj, and discuss Oli’s prospective visit.
Paudel will meet his Indian counterpart as well as foreign minister Sushma Swaraj, and discuss Oli’s prospective visit.
‘Issues of the Madesh remain unresolved’
It can be inferred from Swarup’s remarks that India has not decided to welcome Oli, yet. Responding to a query on Oli’s ‘precondition’ (that the blockade be lifted) to visit India, Swarup had in the past maintained that India was not aware of any such rider. But this time when asked about an update on Oli’s prospective visit, Swarup said at a regular press conference that India has not enforced any blockade on Nepal, and that Birgunj was shut because of Nepali demonstrators. Despite the protests, more that 1,300 vehicles are entering Nepal from India every day, he said.
In addition to this, he noted that the issues of the Madhesh were yet to be resolved. He said India welcomed the recent amendments to Nepal’s constitution, and it hoped that the remaining issues will be resolved through talks.
What does India want?
That the blockade is still on, despite the amendments to the constitution, shows that India is still not assured about Oli’s intentions. It has inferred that Prime Minister Oli does not have faith in his own foreign minister. India has chosen Paudel this time because it understands that a roadmap prepared by Kamal Thapa, who made two trips to Delhi, is of little use now.
The government, however, has not been able to propose a new roadmap. Multiple sources have told Onlinekhabar that Delhi expects a concrete proposal to end the crisis.
The government, however, has not been able to propose a new roadmap. Multiple sources have told Onlinekhabar Delhi expects a concrete proposal to end the crisis. It wants a proposal on issues related to representation in the Upper House, and the re-drawing of provincial boundaries.
Madheshi Morcha has agreed to form a political mechanism to settle the provincial border issue within three months. But the government and the Morcha are still divided over the ToR of such a mechanism. Regarding representation in the Upper House, the Morcha had proposed that each province be allotted a minimum of five seats, and the rest be divided in proportion with the population of each province. An agreement on this was within reach at the taskforce-level, but the proposal could not make it to the meeting of top leaders.
Sources say if Paudel fails to present a convincing roadmap, PM Oli’s India visit could be delayed.
