Kathmandu, October 15
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Nepal’s economic growth to reach 5.2 percent in the current fiscal year.
In its flagship publication, World Economic Outlook, the IMF has slightly revised down its previous projection for Nepal’s economic growth and released a new estimate. Earlier, in the April edition of the same report, the IMF had projected Nepal’s economy to grow by 5.5 percent in the fiscal year 2026.
According to the IMF, Nepal’s economy is likely to be affected by the recent Gen Z Movement, making it difficult to achieve the expected growth target. The World Bank recently made a significant downward revision in its own projection for Nepal’s economic growth, while the IMF made only a mild adjustment.
The IMF report notes that the U.S. government’s announcement of broad tariffs in April 2025 has had a global economic impact. The global economy is now expected to grow by 3.2 percent this year and 3.1 percent next year, according to the IMF.
These figures represent a 0.2 percentage point decline compared to last year. However, the IMF has slightly improved its April 2025 projection, which had estimated that the global economy would expand by only 2.8 percent this year.
The IMF also mentioned that the uncertainty caused by the U.S. tariff hikes announced last April has now somewhat eased.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF’s Chief Economist and Director of Research Department, said during the report’s release on Tuesday that the U.S. signing trade agreements with several countries and the absence of retaliatory tariffs from others have helped stabilize the outlook, leading to a modest upward revision of global growth projections.
Nevertheless, the IMF cautioned that U.S. tariffs remain high, trade tensions continue to rise, and there are no guarantees of lasting trade agreements, meaning it could still take time before a complete and stable picture of the global economy emerges.
