Kathmandu, 17 August
The race in the ICC Cricket World Cup League 2 has become increasingly intriguing and challenging for Nepal following the results of the recently completed series involving Scotland, Canada and the UAE.
In the series held in Scotland, the hosts won three matches while the UAE won one, with two matches ending without a result.
Rain prevented the matches between Scotland and the UAE and Canada and the UAE from producing results. Scotland won both its matches against Canada, while the UAE defeated Canada in one match but lost to Scotland by one wicket.
Canada failed to win any match in the series. After earning one point from a no-result match, Canada moved one place above Nepal in the League 2 standings, pushing Nepal down to seventh.
Nepal is currently seventh with 24 points from 32 matches. Its chances of finishing in the top four and qualifying directly for the World Cup Qualifier have already become extremely difficult.
However, Nepal remains in a relatively strong position in the race to finish in the top six and retain its One-Day International (ODI) status.
Nepal now has only four matches remaining in League 2, with two matches each against Oman and Canada. The upcoming series will be Nepal’s final series in the League 2 campaign.
If Nepal fails to finish in the top six after the series, it could be locked into seventh or eighth place in the final standings and face the prospect of losing its ODI status.
Following Nepal’s poor performance in the previous series, the team has also undergone a captaincy change. Sandeep Lamichhane has replaced Rohit Paudel as captain.
Several key players have also been left out of the squad for the upcoming ACC Premier Cup, including Sompal Kami, Kushal Bhurtel and Bhim Sharki. The squad for Nepal’s final League 2 series has not yet been confirmed.
With a new captain at the helm, Nepal’s immediate challenge will be to win its remaining matches and preserve its ODI status. Captain Lamichhane has said the team will learn from its mistakes and move forward with better planning.
“We could not play the way we should have in our last two tours. We gave our best effort, but we fell short for various reasons,” he said. “Now we will correct our mistakes and move forward with better plans for the upcoming tour.”
League 2 standings
Scotland currently lead the standings with 45 points from 36 matches after completing all their games. The United States are second with 43 points from 32 matches, while the Netherlands are third with 38 points from 32 matches. All three teams are mathematically out of Nepal’s reach.
Oman are fourth with 31 points from 28 matches, followed by Namibia with 28 points from 32 matches and Canada with 25 points from 32 matches.
Nepal are seventh with 24 points from 32 matches, while the UAE are eighth with 18 points from 28 matches.
After the upcoming series involving Oman, Canada and Nepal, the United States, Namibia and the UAE will play a series, followed by a series between the UAE, Netherlands and Oman.
Slim chance of finishing in top four
Nepal’s only remaining route to a top-four finish and direct qualification for the World Cup Qualifier is to overtake fourth-placed Oman. However, Nepal would need to win all its remaining matches and rely heavily on results involving other teams.
Nepal must win all four of its remaining matches — two against Oman and two against Canada — to reach a maximum of 32 points. Even one defeat would end Nepal’s top-four hopes.
Oman, which currently has 31 points from 28 matches, has eight games remaining. Even if Nepal beats Oman in both of their upcoming matches, Oman would still have six matches left.
For Nepal to finish fourth with 32 points, Oman could collect no more than one additional point from those six matches, meaning Oman would have to lose at least five of them.
If Oman wins even one of its upcoming matches, Nepal would be eliminated from the top-four race.
Similarly, Namibia, which currently has 28 points, cannot collect more than four points from its remaining four matches if Nepal is to have a chance of overtaking it. Nepal would also need to beat Canada in both remaining matches and keep Canada below 29 points.
Race to retain ODI status
With direct qualification for the World Cup Qualifier now almost out of reach, finishing in the top six and retaining ODI status has become Nepal’s main and more realistic objective.
If Nepal fails to break into the top six after the series against Oman and Canada, its route to retaining ODI status will effectively be closed.
If Canada remains seventh after the series, Nepal’s main concern will be the UAE, which still has eight matches to play and could theoretically reach 34 points.
Nepal has several possible routes to the top six.
If Nepal wins three or all four of its remaining matches against Oman and Canada, it will finish with between 30 and 32 points. In that scenario, Nepal would move ahead of Canada and Namibia, although Namibia still has matches remaining and could potentially overtake Nepal.
If Nepal beats Canada in both matches but loses both games against Oman, it will finish with 28 points. Canada would remain behind Nepal if Nepal wins both matches against Canada and Oman also beats Canada at least once.
The UAE, currently on 18 points, has eight matches remaining and could theoretically reach 34 points. If the UAE produces an exceptional run and overtakes Nepal, Nepal could drop to seventh and Canada to eighth, although such a scenario remains difficult.
Therefore, beating Canada in both matches and reaching at least 28 to 30 points would be Nepal’s safest route to retaining ODI status.
The simplest route for Nepal is to win all four remaining matches. If Nepal fails to beat Canada and Oman, finishing in the top six will become extremely difficult.
Even if Nepal reaches the top six with a maximum of 32 points, its position would be secure unless the UAE wins all its remaining matches. If Nepal finishes on 26 or 28 points, however, it will have to depend on results from other teams.
