An MP from Madhesh protesting against the constitution
Commentary
- There were rival alliances in the Madhesh competing for public sympathy
- The new grand alliance makes the UDMF stronger
- A govt-UDMF deal will be more widely acceptable than ever before
After the new constitution was promulgated on September 20, Madesh-based parties announced protests against it saying that the document was discriminatory. They also said that the provincial boundaries set by the new constitution was against previous agreements with the government.
It was the United Democratic Madheshi Front (also called SLMM) comprised Sadbhawana Party, Sanghiya Samajwadi Forum Nepal, Tarai Madhes Loktantrik party and Tarai Madhes Sadbhawana Party announced the blockade that crippled fuel supplies across the country for more than four months.
Meanwhile, other political forces also participated in protests across the Madhesh. An alliance between old Madhesi hands JP Gupta, Sarat Singh Bhandari, Raj Kishore Yadav and Anil Jha was formed On November 21, 2015 to take up the cause of the Madhesh.
Morcha leaders were aware that any deal which could be seen as being anti-Madhesh would catapult non-Morcha forces to the leadership of the protests.
Even as the Madheshi Morcha (UDMF) participated in talks with the government, the Morcha was wary that if it signed any deal with the government, it was at risk of losing it command over the agitation. Morcha leaders were aware that any deal which could be seen as being anti-Madhesh would catapult non-Morcha forces (including secessionists) to the leadership of the protests. The government also knew that separate agreement would have to be reached with different Madheshi groups for the agitation to end.
But what happened on Friday has changed the equation. Three more parties (Rastriya Madhes Samajbadi Party, Sanghiya Sadbhawana Party and Madhesi Janadhikar Forum-Ganatantrik) have officially joined UDMF to launch a ‘grand alliance’ in the Madhesh. The three parties were part of JP-Gupta-led alliance to counter the UDMF.
The formation of the grand alliance has made it easier for the government to reach a deal with the UDMF , and for the Morcha to be confident about its position in the Madhesh as members of the rival coalition have switched sides.
As Prime Minister KP Oli prepares to visit New Delhi, the latest developments would give him some respite. The development have made a deal between the Morcha and the government more likely than ever before.
