Commentary
Nepali Congress General Secretary Krishna Prasad Situala knew before the election that he was not going to win the contest to become party president. However, until few days before the election, he believed that he could become the second-most popular candidate in the first round. Hours before the election, Sitaula realised that he was going to finish after rivals Sher Bahadur Deuba and Ramchandra Poudel, and he concentrated his efforts towards dragging the election to the second round.
Sitaula’s strategy seems to have worked. According to the party’s statute, for a candidate to be elected president, he/she must receive more than 50 per cent of the votes cast. This time around, of the 3,148 votes cast, Deuba received 1,534, his competitors Ramchandra Paudel and Krishna Sitaula received 1,154 and 324 votes respectively. A total of 101 votes were deemed invalid. The magic number was 1,575, but Deuba fell short by just 11 votes.
That Sitaula’s supporters could drag the election to the second round, is no mean fete for the Congress leader for Jhapa who was counted out by many. Following the first round of polls, Sitaula has emerged stronger, and positioned himself as the party’s ‘kingmaker’. During the 12th convention of the Nepali Congress, Sushil Koirala (who won the presidency) had received 1.652 votes while Deuba had to content with 1,375 votes. The ‘third candidate’, Bhim Bahadur Tamang, had received just 78 votes, which does not compare to Sitaula’s 300 plus votes this time.
Will it be Deuba or Poudel?
The race for party presidency has been seen as a struggle between the party’s ‘establishment’ (led by the Koiralas) and the Deuba factions. Both Poudel and Sitaula are establishment faction loyalists. Going by the remarks Sitaula made ahead of the elections, Poudel would be counting on Sitaual to back his bid.
But it won’t be easy for Sitaula to back Poudel. Deuba just needs 11 more votes; he could get them easily from the 101 votes that were deemed invalid in the first round. If Sitaula backs Deuba, then the second round of voting would just become a formality. Sitaula could also bargain for powerful positions within the party.
Sitauala, who has been saying that he is the political successor of GP Koirala, has been termed by many as a politician who keeps his cards close to his chest. Whatever decision he takes would be based on immaculate and elaborate number crunching.
Update: Sitaula said in a statement on Monday afternoon that he would like to see the election for president decided based on the mandate from the first round of voting. By saying so, analysts believe, he has tilted towards Deuba.
Update II: Sitaula issued a second statement after two hours calling on his supporters to take part in the second round of elections. He, however, stopped short of backing any candidate. Party sources say Sitaula, who was in favour of voting for Poudel, was under pressure from supporters to not to back Ramchandra. Sitaula’s supporters say they will not forgive Poudel for his scathing remarks about Sitaula.
