The Indian leadership, which imposed a blockade on its neighbour, would have corrected its course on Nepal only when it welcomes the new constitution
It could not just be mere coincidence. Nepal’s Parliament rejected a bill to amend the constitution to meet the demands of the Madheshi parties, the same day the government announced elections in November, and after two days, the Prime Minister is off to New Delhi.
Although the Prime Minister’s visit is a five-day affair, the all-important meetings will take place on Thursday as Modi receives his Nepali counterpart in Hyderabad House. The meeting is not just important because top leaders of two neighbours are going to sit down for one-on-one talks, but also because it will give clues to an important question: Is India in mood for a ‘course correction’ on Nepal?
When Modi’s special envoy and Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar landed in Kathmandu on Friday, September 18, 2015, he had one message to leaders in Nepal: postpone the promulgation of the constitution for a few days. Not only did he say that India would not accept the new constitution, he dared the leaders to get it passed from the CA.
Jaishankar returned home, and within two days Nepal promulgated the constitution and India retaliated with a blockade, which lasted for around six months.
The blockade was lifted, but India’s stance on Nepal remained unchanged. Nepal has had three Prime Ministers since the blockade–KP Sharma Oli was the least popular PM for the New Delhi crowd. When he visited in February 2016, both governments could not even agree on a joint statement. The reason the joint statement was never issued was that New Delhi insisted that Nepal’s constitution was ‘incomplete’, but Oli would not agree.
When Prachanda replaced Oli, he met Modi in New Delhi on September 16, 2015. A joint statement was issued after the visit, but India did not welcome the constitution. It only said India backed the coalition’s bid to amend the constitution.
As Modi receives Nepal’s third Prime Minister since the promulgation of the new constitution, in Delhi on Thursday, bilateral ties have gone through many crests and troughs. The ruling coalition’s failure to get the amendment bill passed will definitely have a bearing on bilateral ties. The failure of the bill gives a loud and clear message that the current Parliament cannot amend the constitution because the opposition holds the key to a two-third majority needed for the bill to sail through. Even the RJPN has accepted the results and said it will contest the upcoming local elections and the provincial and parliamentary elections.
So it is highly unlikely that Modi will ask Deuba about the amendment bill when he meets the Nepali PM on Thursday. But does that mean India has corrected its course on Nepal?
Sources in the know say that it would be naive to say that. Nepal can understand that India has corrected its stance on Kathmandu only when New Delhi welcomes the constitution. Until then, one cannot say that India has corrected its ‘interfering’ stance on Nepal.
They claim that when Modi and Deuba hold a press conference on Thursday, Modi will welcome the decision of all parties in Nepal to contest elections. But, he will remain mum on the constitution, indicating that India remains firm on its stance over the constitution in Nepal.
Another source says, “If the constitution had been amended, Modi would have welcomed it, but that did not happen. So it is unlikely that he will even mention the constitution.”
What will India do next?
Although India is not satisfied with Nepal’s constitution, it has no option but to support the political process in Nepal. That is why it will welcome the elections in Nepal.
India also wants to keep the UML out of the government; that is why it will keep backing this ruling coalition. For that, it will project Deuba as a successful Prime Minister, even if it means the announcement of a ‘big’ aid package to Nepal.
That is why although India has stopped being provocative, it continues on its ‘interfering’ course when it comes to relations with Nepal.
