With the CIAA filing corruption charges against former PM Madhav Kumar Nepal and other 92 persons, related to Patanjali land scam, several hypotheses are on fray seeking to explain possible factors behind this big bang anti-corruption approach.
Based on media reporting, here are five hypotheses surrounding Patanjali Land Scam:
Hypothesis 1: Assertiveness of the CIAA
Many people have praised the CIAA action as timely, bold, “historic” to catch big fishes. This is also the first time the CIAA investigating “policy decision” of the Cabinet hitherto regarded as “no go” area. The action has come at a time when the amendment of the CIAA Act is put on hold in the Lower House due to lack of consensus on defining what constituted “policy decision”?
Definitely, the case will trigger a new debate on policy decision. A democratically elected government should have a freedom to implement its policies mandated by the people, therefore, all decisions made by the Cabinet are regarded as policy decisions.
This is the underlying principle behind why Cabinet decisions should not be a subject of investigation by anti-graft agencies. Based on this assumption, others have criticised the actions as transgression of authority by the CIAA.
However, there are several loopholes in the actions by the CIAA. First, the case has been filed after a lapse of 16 years. Moreover, the case already been put on hold or tameli by the CIAA. But this does not mean the CIAA cannot re-investigate case. It is also reported in the media that the CIAA filed the case after a lapse of two months from its decision plus one of the Commissioners has not signed the minute.
Hypothesis 2: Political vendetta
The second most popular hypothesis on fray is the political vendetta hypothesis. One can find several sub-hypotheses under political vendetta hypothesis. First, this could be a PM Oli’s sinister design to defame, damage and end political career of his arch-rival Madhav Kumar Nepal. Nepal also agrees to this hypothesis.
PM Oli has refuted this line of thinking and holds on to independent action by the CIAA. Second, the action could be taken as a warning signal to other political opponents, within and outside his party, of possible consequences. The opponents, now, charge that the CIAA has completely become a shadow of PM Oli.
Third, with the decimation of Nepal, PM Oli expects re-joining of MPs from CPN(US) into CPN(UML) thereby making it the largest party in the parliament. With this, he can, literally, bar waiting prime minister Deuba from becoming next prime minister.
Four, anti-corruption actions are now being used as a tool for settling scores with political opponents. Clearly, this is an exercise in cherry picking. With the pending case of Giri-Bandhu Tea Estate, it is doubtful to have this political vendetta hypothesis. The case is very much similar to Patanjali land scam where PM Oli is assumed to be at the center of controversy.
Hypothesis 3: Scorched the earth policy
This is my favourite hypothesis and churned out by Rajendra Pandey from CPN(US). A court case has been pending since last four years related to (un)constitutional appointment of 52 officials into various constitutional bodies by PM Oli during his earlier tenure when he dissolved the House.
If the court verdict goes against PM Oli’s decision, it may annul the appointments, including the CIAA Chief and the Commissioners. This will put an immense pressure on PM Oli to resign on moral grounds. This will put us into a similar situation when Lok Man Singh Karki, Chief Commissioner of the CIAA was disqualified after being in the position for more than three years.
Hypothesis 4: Side-effects of Rajabadi movement
There are some others who believe that high profile action by the CIAA is due to or related to ongoing movement by Rajabadis. Besides restoring of monarchy, a hindu state and anti-federalism, other agenda of Rajabadi movement is to establish good governance and anti-corruption. As the Rajabadi movement has already fizzled out, I don’t suppose relevance of this hypothesis. Moreover, Rajabadis commitment to good governance and anti-corruption is nothing more than a big joke.
Hypothesis 5: Beyond Oli design
The fifth hypothesis may be a design concocted by forces beyond the control of PM Oli. Clearly, the case has spared Patanjali heads – Baba Ram Dev and Acharya Bal Krishna, instead named their Nepali representative Shalikgram Singh – a man of dubious character, having lots of political links. The case may have political economic ramifications, going beyond national borders, and the issue of corruption crime. It will not be a big surprise if the case gives a jolt to the PM’s chair.
