Kathmandu, November 8
The effects of climate change are becoming increasingly severe, with October 2026 recorded as the hottest October on record. The global average temperature during the month was 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels.
According to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), global average temperatures have remained above the 1.5°C threshold for the third consecutive month.
Scientists estimate that 2026 could become the second calendar year on record in which the global average temperature exceeds 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The threshold was previously crossed in 2024.
October sets new temperature record, 2026 could be second-hottest year
The global average temperature in October 2026 reached 15.35°C, which was 0.90°C above the October average for the 1991–2020 period.
October 2023 had previously held the record as the hottest October on record. The latest figures show that October 2026 has surpassed it.
Of further concern is that the average global temperature from 2023 to 2025 was also above 1.5°C. If the trend continues through 2026, the four-year average from 2023 to 2026 will also exceed that threshold.
The average global temperature over the 12 months from November 2025 to October 2026 was 1.51°C above pre-industrial levels, indicating that warming is not confined to a single month or season.
Temperature data from January to October 2026 show that the year is currently the second-hottest on record.
Statistical models used by scientists indicate that the annual average temperature in 2026 could be between 1.56°C and 1.61°C above pre-industrial levels. The probability of the annual average exceeding 1.5°C is estimated at more than 99 per cent.
The models also suggest an approximately 80 per cent chance that 2026 will become the second-hottest year on record. There is an estimated 20 per cent chance that it could match or surpass the temperature record set in 2024.
El Niño adds to rising temperatures
One of the factors contributing to the rise in global temperatures is the developing El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean.
In October, sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific were 3.21°C above average, marking the highest deviation recorded so far.
Meanwhile, the average sea surface temperature across the world’s oceans, excluding the polar regions, reached 20.95°C in October, also setting a new record.
The rise in ocean temperatures is particularly concerning because oceans absorb a large share of the excess heat trapped in the Earth’s climate system. El Niño can also contribute to a natural increase in global temperatures.
Scientists say the current warming is also being driven by the long-term rise in global temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities.
Drought in some parts of Europe, floods in others
The effects of rising temperatures have varied across different parts of the world.
October was the second-hottest on record in Europe. Temperatures were significantly above average in eastern Europe and Scandinavia, while western and central Europe experienced comparatively less pronounced warming.
Meanwhile, water levels in several rivers across central and eastern Europe fell considerably. The flow of the Rhine, Danube and Vistula rivers declined.
In contrast, heavy rainfall and flooding affected parts of the United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain, Greece and Türkiye.
The simultaneous occurrence of water shortages in some areas and excessive rainfall and flooding in others highlights the growing disruption of weather patterns associated with climate change.
Unusually high temperatures in Antarctica
The effects of rising temperatures have also reached the polar regions.
In western Antarctica, October temperatures were more than 7°C above average, with some areas recording anomalies of up to 11°C.
Unusually high temperatures were also recorded in Siberia, the central United States, northern Canada, eastern Africa and the Middle East.
However, most parts of South America experienced below-average temperatures.
Paris Agreement targets face growing challenges
The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, aims to keep the rise in global average temperatures well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.
However, the continued rise in temperatures in recent years has made achieving these targets increasingly challenging.
A single year or several months with temperatures exceeding 1.5°C do not, by themselves, mean that the long-term temperature limit under the Paris Agreement has been formally breached. That assessment is based on long-term global temperature trends over several decades.
Nevertheless, the repeated setting of new temperature records and the failure to slow the pace of global warming point to a deepening climate crisis.
The need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, expand the use of clean energy and take effective measures to protect the environment is becoming increasingly urgent. The question is no longer simply which temperature record will be broken next, but how quickly and effectively countries around the world will act to contain global warming.
