Antalya, November 9
The UN’s annual climate summit opened in Turkey on Monday, with rising global temperatures increasing pressure for urgent action as financial constraints, energy market uncertainty and geopolitical tensions threaten international cooperation.
More than 100,000 people are expected to attend COP31 at a sprawling exhibition centre in Antalya, a Mediterranean coastal city, over the next two weeks.
Negotiators from nearly 200 countries face difficult discussions on accelerating the transition to cleaner energy and securing funding to help developing countries cope with the worsening climate crisis.
However, observers expect few major breakthroughs as countries grapple with an oil price shock and geopolitical tensions stemming from the US war with Iran and Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The climate crisis has continued to cause widespread destruction this year. Severe heatwaves have affected Europe, wildfires have ravaged Indonesia, and a glacier collapse has triggered devastating floods in Nepal.
An exceptionally strong El Niño phenomenon is forecast to peak later this year, potentially intensifying extreme weather events and contributing to 2026 or 2027 becoming the hottest year on record.
The outlook remains concerning. The United Nations warned in September that global temperatures were on course to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, surpassing the most ambitious threshold set by the Paris Agreement.
“Global leaders must pull us back from the brink and commit to rapidly transitioning away from fossil fuels and expanding renewable energy, an imperative reinforced by the current energy affordability crisis,” said Rachel Cleetus, climate programme director at the Union of Concerned Scientists.
Push for clean electrification
Turkey is hosting COP31, while Australia is leading the negotiations under an unusual arrangement reached to resolve a dispute over the summit’s host country.
The two countries have described the conference as an “implementation COP”, with an emphasis on translating years of commitments and ambitious pledges into concrete action.
Alongside formal negotiations, Turkey is promoting an action agenda encouraging countries to make voluntary commitments on issues ranging from artificial intelligence to waste management.
A central component is an electrification initiative aimed at increasing electricity’s share of global energy demand from around 20 per cent currently to 35 per cent by 2035.
However, the proposal could become a point of disagreement. The European Union has called for “clean” electrification, a qualification that could trigger debate over the role of fossil fuels in Turkey’s initiative.
Countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels at COP28 in Dubai in 2023. However, they have struggled to reach consensus on how to implement that commitment.
COP30 ended with an agreement that made no explicit reference to fossil fuels after oil-producing countries opposed including such language. Brazil instead developed a voluntary roadmap outlining proposals for phasing out fossil fuels, allowing individual countries to adapt them to their circumstances.
Dispute over climate finance
Developing countries are also pressing the European Union and other wealthy nations to honour their commitments to provide funding for climate adaptation and recovery from extreme weather disasters.
However, a senior EU official has warned that there would be “no political will” for additional funding pledges.
African countries are pushing for COP31 to include discussions on tripling adaptation finance. Such funding would help poorer nations pay for measures including sea walls and drought-resistant crops to cope with climate impacts.
Climate diplomacy is also taking place without a major participant. US President Donald Trump has withdrawn the United States from the Paris Agreement and has not sent officials to COP31.
A US congressional delegation is, however, expected to attend the summit in Antalya, with Democrats buoyed by their historic victory in last week’s US midterm elections.
Despite the difficult negotiations expected over the next two weeks, Azerbaijan’s chief negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev said the atmosphere was positive.
“The mood is very good,” he told AFP, adding that countries needed to turn “this positive spirit of being in a favourable environment into concrete, successful results”.
