Washington, DC, September 24
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet at the White House on Thursday with a long list of difficult issues on the agenda, from trade and artificial intelligence to Taiwan, Iran and critical minerals.
Despite the tensions, both leaders appear to believe they have time on their side as Washington and Beijing prepare for what is expected to remain one of the world’s most consequential economic and national security rivalries.
China has resisted pressure from the Trump administration to use its influence over Iran to push Tehran towards US terms for ending the nearly seven-month war. Beijing, meanwhile, wants Washington to permanently halt arms sales to Taiwan and ease restrictions on exports of advanced semiconductor technology.
The two countries also agreed on Wednesday to extend their one-year trade truce for another two months, postponing a broader agreement.
Edgard Kagan, a former senior State Department official responsible for East Asia policy under Trump and former President Joe Biden, said Trump believes the US economy will strengthen over time, while the country continues to advance in artificial intelligence and technology and develops alternative sources of critical minerals and rare earths.
Xi, meanwhile, believes the US is in decline and that time is working in China’s favour, Kagan said.
Trump puts on a show of hospitality
Trump has placed considerable emphasis on the ceremonial aspects of Xi’s visit.
The US president personally greeted Xi and his wife, Peng Liyuan, when they arrived near Washington on Wednesday evening.
Trump has also made efforts to ensure the White House is ready for the visit, including completing construction of a new helicopter landing pad on the South Lawn.
He has openly expressed disappointment that a planned White House ballroom was not completed in time to host the state dinner for Xi on Thursday evening.
The guest list includes Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, bringing some of the world’s most prominent technology executives into a meeting where artificial intelligence is expected to be an important topic.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the two leaders could consider establishing a new “notification mechanism” for AI-related incidents that could pose national security risks.
However, it remains uncertain whether the summit will produce progress on AI or other major disputes.
Trade truce extended, but bigger deal remains uncertain
Bessent announced shortly after Xi arrived in Washington that the two countries had agreed to extend the trade truce reached last year in Busan, South Korea.
He said Trump and Xi could potentially reach a broader agreement by January, or could decide to extend the truce again.
Both governments have strong reasons to avoid a renewed trade confrontation.
Trump’s Republican Party faces a difficult political environment ahead of the November midterm elections, while another major economic disruption could add pressure.
China, meanwhile, is dealing with an uneven economy, with weakness in domestic demand alongside strong exports of high-tech products.
During last year’s trade war, US tariffs on Chinese goods reached as high as 145%, while China imposed retaliatory tariffs of up to 125%.
After Trump and Xi met in South Korea last year, the average US tariff rate fell to about 47%, while China’s average tariff rate was in the mid-30% range.
The US Supreme Court later overturned many of Trump’s tariffs in February, resulting in greater variation in the tariff rates applied to Chinese goods.
The latest extension is shorter than the timelines previously discussed by both sides.
China had indicated that it wanted the truce to remain in place until the end of Trump’s current term in January 2029. Trump administration officials, however, had suggested an extension of between three and six months, citing China’s slow progress on commitments involving rare-earth exports, US soybean purchases and aircraft imports.
Ryan Hass, a senior China policy adviser in the Obama administration who is now with the Brookings Institution, said a major breakthrough may not emerge from the summit.
Instead, he said, both sides are likely to focus on securing limited gains while avoiding a broader confrontation.
Iran unlikely to produce a breakthrough
Iran is another major issue where expectations for a breakthrough remain limited.
Trump has argued that China has a strong incentive to use its influence over Tehran because Beijing is considerably more dependent on Gulf oil than the United States.
China, however, has been critical of the US and Israeli military action and has expressed concern over the conflict.
Xi has described the developments as evidence of a return to what he called the “law of the jungle.”
Beijing has also been unsettled by the US military operation against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, which Trump ordered to remove Maduro from power and bring him to New York to face federal narcoterrorism and drug-trafficking charges.
Trump has since urged Latin American countries to reduce their economic and political ties with China and has cited Chinese and Russian influence as a reason for greater US involvement in Venezuela’s oil industry.
Jake Werner, director of the East Asia Program at the Quincy Institute, said Beijing is concerned about what he described as the “19th-century imperialist cast” of Trump’s geopolitical approach.
At the same time, Werner said China considers its relationship with the US to be decisive and does not want to take steps that could cause the relationship to deteriorate sharply.
Taiwan remains a central issue
Taiwan is expected to be another major point of contention during the summit.
China considers Taiwan part of its territory and has not ruled out using force to bring the island under its control.
Under US law, Washington is required to provide Taiwan with sufficient defence equipment to help deter an armed attack from China.
Beijing has repeatedly called on Washington to end arms sales to Taiwan permanently, including during Trump and Xi’s previous meeting in Beijing in May.
Following that meeting, Trump said he had delayed final approval of a proposed $14 billion arms package for Taiwan. He also described US arms sales to Taiwan as a “very good negotiating chip” in dealings with China.
Analysts say Trump may have an incentive to maintain the pause at least until the end of the year.
Trump has also viewed direct meetings with Xi as important for maintaining stability in the relationship. He wants Xi to attend the Group of 20 summit in December at his resort in Doral, Florida.
Xi, meanwhile, wants Trump to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, China, in November.
Hass said maintaining the current situation, with the Taiwan arms sales still delayed, could be seen by Beijing as a favourable outcome from the talks.
