Commentary
- Both Oli and the Indian government want some kind of a deal in Nepal before Oli’s visit
- A political mechanism is being formed to address demands to review provincial boundaries
- Second amendment to the constitution is also in the works
Prime Minister KP Oli, who assumed office on October 12, 2015, is preparing to uphold the tradition under which Nepal’s Prime Minister visits India, and then other countries. Oli is heading to New Delhi on February 19, and will meet his counterpart on February 20.
As bureaucrats on both sides of the border put finishing touches to Oli’s itinerary, Nepal’s Prime Minister, meanwhile is in a hurry to reach a deal with the agitating Madheshi Morcha. Oli wants to reach some sort of a deal with the Morcha before heading to New Delhi, and India wants the same before it can wholeheartedly roll out the red carpet to Nepal’s Prime Minister. Morcha, meanwhile, is also under pressure to give the protests a safe-landing, especially after the end of the blockade.
When Oli lands in Delhi, he wants to be able to tell Indian leaders that demands of the Madhesh movement have been addressed.
When Oli lands in Delhi, he wants to be able to tell Indian leaders that demands of the Madhesh movement have been addressed. According to sources close to the Prime Minister and the Madheshi Morcha, the government and the Morcha are preparing to sign a deal on Sunday to pave the way for a political committee to be formed to recommend revision of provincial boundaries (the principal demand of the Morcha).
Even if’ the agreement is not signed on Sunday, it will be signed before Oli’s India visit, sources from both sides claim. “It would not be easy for India, which has been expressing concern over the Madhesh movement, to welcome Prime Minister Oli without the Nepal government doing something to address the protests, a source claimed. “The same goes for Oli, it would be difficult for him to talk about resolving the Madheshi issue without having anything concrete to show.”
Details of the deal:
According to sources, the deal will lead to the formation of a political committee which will get three months to recommend a revision of provincial boundaries set by the new constitution. The committee will be assigned to use reports prepared by the state restructuring and the constitutional dialogue committees of the now-dissolved Constituent Assembly.
Second-rung leaders from both sides are discussing the nuts and bolts of the agreement, and only minor issues remain to be sorted out.
Second-rung leaders from both sides are discussing the nuts and bolts of the agreement, and only minor issues remain to be sorted out.
Similarly, the deal will also incorporate the second amendment to the constitution to address another important issue being raised by the Morcha–representation in the Upper House. But it is likely that the second amendment will be tabled only after the soon-be-formed committee presents its report.
India’s role
Sources say that the Indian Embassy has also played a role in creating an environment for a deal to be reached.
When Finance Minister Bishnu Poudel, Oli’s confidante, visited Delhi last week, he assured the Indian leadership that a deal on forming a political mechanism would be reached before Oli’s visit to India.
The embassy, which has had a role to play in ending protests in the Madhesh in recent times, has also played a role in bridging the divide between the Nepali and Indian governments. India, which has not accepted that it imposed a blockade on Nepal, would not accept that it played a role in bringing the Morcha and the government closer.
But the Indian move has certainly put pressure on the Morcha to reach a deal with the government.
