Commentary
- Oli may form political mechanism unilaterally
- India wants it to be formed with consent from Madheshi parties
- How the mechanism is formed will have a bearing on Oli’s visit
Prime Minister KP Oli’s confidante Finance Minister Bishnu Poudel came back from New Delhi last week assuring the Indian leadership that Oli’s government will setup a political mechanism to review provincial boundaries before his visit to India.
India sees the formation of the mechanism as a major issue, and wants it to be done, anyhow, before Oli lands in New Delhi. The Indian government, which backed the Madheshi Morcha to enforce a four-month long crippling blockade on Nepal, wants something to show to the Morcha before welcoming Nepal’s Prime Minsiter (against whom the blockade was aimed at) to its capital.
Both Oli and the Madheshi Morcha, an alliance of agitated Madheshi parties that has been demanding a revision of provincial boundaries, know this.
On Tuesday, Prime Minister Oli told Parliament that the mechanism would be formed before his visit, and the same was reiterated by the Cabinet, in the evening. This shows that a mechanism of some sort will certainly be setup on or before Friday, but will it be formed unilaterally or with consent from the Morcha is what India is interested in. If Oli goes ahead solo, then India would not be able to welcome him wholeheartedly.
Morcha wants a package deal
Oli wants the political mechanism issue cleared before his Delhi visit, and is averse to signing a package deal with the Morcha to table a second amendment to the constitution. But Morcha wants a deal that would pave the way for the formation of the mechanism, and another amendment to the constitution.
Going solo
A minister tells Onlinekhabar that if a deal is not reached by Wednesday afternoon, PM Oli will announce the formation of the mechanism on his own.
The Embassy is listening
The Indian embassy in Kathmandu has taken note the Oli could unilaterally announce the mechanism. It is doing its best to deter him from doing so.
The Indian embassy in Kathmandu has taken note the Oli could unilaterally announce the mechanism.
On Wednesday morning Indian ambassador Ranjit Rae met UCPN Maoist Chairman Prachanda, a key ally in the Oli government, to express concern about Oli’s unilateral move. The Indian government is worried that the mechanism would meet the same fate as the first amendment of the constitution, which was tabled without the Madheshi Morcha’s consent.
It should also be noted that the Madheshi Morcha agreed to allow a political mechanism to review provincial boundaries, on India’s prescription.
The choices Oli now makes before he leaves for Delhi will determine what type of a welcome he will get in the Indian capital.
