Dadeldhura, November 5
Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba is all set to contest the sixth parliamentary elections from his home district, Dadeldhura.
Deuba has won all five previous elections held in 1990, 1994, 1999, 2008 and 2013. Hence now, all eyes are on him as they are curious to know if the incumbent Prime Minister will make the double hat-trick.
Here are four reasons each for his possible victory or defeat:
For victory
1.
PM’s position
Because Deuba is at the helm of government now, he can turn the table in his favour by hook or by crook. He can use and misuse state power to accelerate his election campaigns. Some even fear that he can plot a ‘master game plan’ to create divisions within the opposing leftist alliance.
“Simply, voters can cast ballots for him hoping he will do something for them as the PM,” says a local trader in Dadeldhura, Pushkar Singh Thakuri.
2.
Personality
Deuba has developed a respectable personality in Dadeldhura. The leader, who spent his youth for the struggle of democracy and was sent behind bars for years, has contributed to development of various infrastructures including school buildings, health posts, drinking water, telephone lines, electricity facilities and road networks in the district. Likewise, he is a national figure and it makes him easy to appeal to voters.
3.
Unification of two factions
There are two factions within the district in Nepali Congress, but these factions do not have any reservation of Deuba’s name as the House of Representatives candidate. Further, two leaders of the factions–Karna Bahadur Malla and Raghubir Bhatta–have also got tickets for provincial assembly elections and this had made them end the differences.
Malla, who is also the party’s district president, says, “Now, there are not two factions in Dadeldhura Congress. It means the results will favour us.”
4.
Voters’ mood
Some voters in the district do not hesitate to idolise Deuba as he has contributed to the overall development of district. Local Congress cadres say voters change their mind to vote for Deuba even if they reach the voting centre with a decision to cast ballots for other candidates.
For defeat
1.
Leftist alliance
If results of recent local level elections are anything to go by, the Congress has to lag behind the leftist alliance of CPN-UML and CPN-Maoist Centre by a margin of more than 8,000 votes. It means Deuba has to take at least around 4,000 voters from the leftist camp to his side.
Since the local polls, 6,804 voters have been added to the voters’ list in the district.
2.
Downfall on popularity scale
Deuba’s popularity is gradually falling down. Of late, he is under fire for expanding the Cabinet up to 64 members. Few months back, he had shouted at a person asking a question to him on a TV show. Voters in the district have also come to know that Deuba’s English speeches at international forums is also not impressive.
“It will not be easy for him anymore,” says a local social activist Kailash Paneru.
3.
Desire for change
Results of local level elections have indicated that Dadeldhura voters want to see changes in their representatives. Some opinion makers in the district argue that new faces should get a chance to represent the district in national politics.
“Due to the likely unification of leftist parties, Deuba is unlikely to become the PM again. Now, he is very old,” local Bhuwan Bhandari says, “Now, somebody else should take the turn.”
4.
Busy schedule
Deuba could not manage his time to produce himself before the poll officials to file his nominations last week. As the President of one of the biggest parties, he needs to give most of his time to the party. It means he does not have much time for his district. He even does not have time to meet his voters in the run-up to polls.
