Eventful week in Nepali politics: Four events that can change its course

Onlinekhabar Wednesday, November 23, 2016

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Kathmandu, November 23

As Nepal’s Prime Minister prepares to table a bill to amend the new constitution to address the demands of the Madhesh-based parties, the country is headed for an eventful week, analysts say.

Prachanda’s government is giving finishing touches to the draft bill to amend four key provisions of the constitution related to citizenship, delineation of federal boundaries, representation in the national assembly and the use of local languages. While matters related to representation in the national assembly and use of local languages are issues that are relatively easy to sort out, that of citizenship and delineation of provincial boundaries are not so easy to settle, especially when political parties are already looking for their agenda in the next election. The stakes are high because when the elections happen, the people will be choosing their representatives at all levels, and political parties understand going against the popular sentiment of their electorate could translate to being locked out of power for years to come.

The three-party meeting on Monday that ended on a bitter note, with the UML daring Prachanda to table amendment, and Madheshi Morcha leader Upendra Yadav’s remarks on Saturday show that the Prime Minister’s proposal has not yet received a nod from the main opposition as well as the political parties that are protesting the constitution.

1 UML may decide to take to the streets

If Prachanda’s amendment touches upon the issue of provincial boundaries, local people in provinces concerned may resort to protests, and the UML might back them. Protests and riots have already been observed in various districts as officials prepare local reports for the local bodies’ commission.

Just a few days ago, UML leader KP Pli was in Province No 5, one of the two provinces whose borders are likely to be affected by the proposed amendment. Oli met senior party members there and instructed them to remain alert. Similar is the case with Province No 3, where the UML is on standby mode. The UML is also learnt to have been in touch with Maoist leaders from the provinces, and they too might join the agitation.

The UML will be able to mobilise the masses in other provinces as well when it comes to the issue of citizenship. The UML wants to project itself as a ‘nationalist’ party, and it wants to do so by standing firmly against any move to allow naturalised citizens to be elected or nominated to top positions of the state.

2. At least one Morcha faction may disown the amendment

With the position of the Madheshi Morcha, for whom the government wants to amend the new constitution, unclear, the government cannot rest assured that the the alliance will support its proposal. At least one faction of the Morcha is likely to protest the amendment, after it is tabled, and convert the issue into its electoral agenda. With the UML firmly opposed to the amendment, the government proposal cannot sail through Parliament without the full support of all Morcha MPs.

But the government believes that the Madheshi parties will accept the amendment as a ‘partial’ achievement, and help it pass. Some leaders of the alliance believe that Upendra Yadav may not support the amendment, regardless of what the government does to address the concerns. Madheshi leaders Mahanta Thakur and Rajendra Mahato are likely to back the amendment, and Upendra Yadav will do so only at the eleventh hour, even the Indian Embassy in Kathmandu believes.

But if the Madheshi parties stand against the amendment, they know all too well that what would happen next would benefit the UML. That is another reason for them to vote in favour of the government’s amendment propsoal.

3. The number game

With the unification of RPP and RPP-N, the ruling alliance, at least in theory, commands a two-third majority in Parliament. However, Prime Minister Prachanda wants to take the Opposition on board the amendment process. But he too has his limits, and if the UML continues to aggressively go against the amendment, the ruling alliance might use the opportunity to isolate the UML while the opposition prepares to launch nationwide agitation.

The ruling alliance believes that if the UML sees that the amendment will pass even without its support, it will have no choice but to own it up. The Prime Minister believes that KP Oli will change his mind in the end. But he does not understand that Oli himself is under tremendous pressure from leaders from Province No 5.

4. What will Congress do?

If the government fails to get the amendment passed, it won’t be able to hold local elections, as was promised by Prachanda. If the local elections do not take place, it will have a bearing on Nepali Congress chief Sher Bahadur Deuba’s aspirations to become the next Prime Minister.

If the UML remains opposed to the amendment process, the Nepali Congress, which has remained mum on the Lokman Singh Karki impeachment issue, may not ‘help’ the opposition in settling the CIAA chief’s case to ‘punish’ the UML, the instigator of the motion.

This however, may not go down well with the Maoists, and they may decide against handing over power to the Nepali Congress in April, as per a gentlemen’s agreement between Prachanda and Deuba. The Prime Minister’s recent comments that if the UML did not support the amendment, his party would revert to its ‘old agenda’ also needs to be taken into consideration. If the UML indeed decides to oppose changes to the constitution, the Maoists and the Madheshis might announce agitation even as Prachanda remains Prime Minister.